A research on usefulness of stock valuation models to anticipate stock prices in TSE
Mohammad Ali
Aghaie
استادیار دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
author
Saeid
Ghorbani
استادیار دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
author
Samaneh
Kosha
عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه پیام نور ماهدشت
author
text
article
2012
per
The intention of this study is to investigate the ability of the evaluating models, including the model of the ratio of price to Earning (Tkasry coefficients) and that of the market's value added, in predicting the price of the stock market in a four-year period of time (2004-2007). The results reveal that the evaluating methods of price/Earning coefficient and the market's value added can both be used to investigate and predict the price and output of the stocks. They can also be utilized by the investors, shareholders, company managers, the Stock Exchange Corporation and brokers as well as economic and financial interpreters.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
4
15
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104579_4abd95026e08596dcaf7b5079d27d6a0.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104579
Forecasting the Tehran Stock Market return by using following models؛ moving average (MA) and moving average model with external inputs (MAX)
Mohammad Esmaiel
Fadaienezhad
عضو هیأت علمی گروه مدیریت مالی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
author
Mohammad
Hasannezhad
عضو هیأت علمی گروه مدیریت مالی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
author
text
article
2012
per
The purpose of this research is modeling and predicting the return of Tehran Stock Exchange Market using by MA and MAX models.
At first, we review the return concept and different types of it; then we recognize the parameters which affect the return derive from theoretical basis of finance and related researches. After that, prediction and common methods of predicting as well as different kinds of predicting the return of capital market models will be reviewed. In the next section, research method and data analyzing are reviewed. Next, we use the OLS model to predict the return of Tehran Stock Exchange Market. Then, when the results of diagnostic tests imply on the effectiveness of dependent variables from moving average variables of one to ten of itself, we use MA and MAX models to predict the return of Tehran Stock Exchange Market.
After estimation of mentioned models and confirmation of their power specification by applying diagnostic tests, the return of Tehran Stock Exchange Market will be predicted for the four coming periods.
These predictions by applying estimation models are compared with real data and the optimistic model by using Akaike information criterion (AIC), Schwarz- Bayesian information criterion, Hannan-Quinn and also MSE, MAE, MAPE criteria has been chosen. The final result shows the preference of MAX model to MA model.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
16
37
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104580_ab061a5433eebf34905374490f4fe953.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104580
Fundamental-Based Risk Measurement and its Relation with Risk Adjustment and Stock Return
Ebrahim
Noruzbeigi
دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
Ali
Saghaf
دانشیار حسابداری دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
Mahdi
Morad Zadeh Fard
عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد واحد کرج
author
text
article
2012
per
Empirical accounting research provides surprisingly little evidence on whether accounting earnings numbers capture cross-sectional differences in risk that are associated with cross-sectional differences in share prices. We address two questions regarding the risk-relevance of accounting numbers: (1) Are accounting-related risk measures related with market evaluations and risk pricing? (2) If so, Are these risk measures associated with traditional risk measures? Our empirical results from investigating 88 TSE companies indicate accounting-based risk measures can justify priced risk in capital market and are associated with traditional risk measures. There is also a significant relationship between accounting-based risk measures and stock returns.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
38
61
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104581_61f6f29aae608c42a0e97aab1df10be7.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104581
An examination of the factors that influence Auditors' decision to use 'a decision aid' in ssessment of management fraud risk.
Abdolmahdi
Ansari
استادیار گروه حسابداری دانشکده عوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان
author
Narjes
Kamali Kermani
کارشناس ارشد حسابداری از دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان
author
text
article
2012
per
In the last years, with regard to scandal resulting from management fraud, profession of management greatly has been considered.
These scandals have had deep effect on profession and have caused great damage. With existence bulky records about management fraud, dictator of audit profession, are thinking of a remedy. With regard to this, that today's, many people use (profit) from information of financial lists for decision, they should be assured of reliance ability to these information, therefore, it expect from auditors, that evaluate the risk of management fraud to the best possible method. In this field, auxiliary device of decision making could be profit, considerably.
On the base of last researches, auditors don't tend to use of these auxiliary device. With regard to being profit.
This device in the auditing profession, in this study, we are considering effective factors on decision of auditor for using of decision-making auxiliary device.
For gathering necessary data, it has used from questioner device that has an option to independent auditors, for that we could investigate answers about this affair.
Four useful factors, have been considered, knowing auxiliary device, size of company, employer, confidence to ability in fraud evaluating, pressure of profession, that after that necessary analysis's were determined, the factors of usefulness, size, confidence to ability for using of decision-making auxiliary device, are effective, but pressure of profession, don't relationship with using of auxiliary device.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
62
79
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104582_8966a516531e6d865bc2560fc713b933.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104582
Capital Raise by Iranian Listed Firms
Abdolreza
Talaneh
استادیار دانشگاه آزاد واحد فیروزکوه
author
Mohammad
Mahmoodi
استادیار دانشگاه آزاد واحد فیروزکوه
author
Elham
Kermabi
کارشناس ارشد مدیریت بازرگانی گرایش مالی- دانشگاه آزاد واحد فیروزکوه
author
text
article
2012
per
We investigate the potential explanations to increase capital by Iranian firms listed at Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Shortage of cash due to low earnings quality of firms and the legal force to distribute approved cash dividends in due time are studied as the two possible reasons proposed for firms that frequently raise equity capital via new contributions of shareholders. The results of conducting conditional distribution analyses and of performing regression analyses show that cash dividends could be a possible cause for firms to raise capital. However, similar to Karami et al. (2007), the results show no relation between low earnings quality and capital increase.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
80
101
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104583_a99260ea6b83c2b19b5b353dd814f412.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104583
Determining the Relationship between Macro-Economic Factors & Bank Credit Risk
Saber
Sheri
استادیار گروه حسابداری دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
Mohammad Mehdi
Naderi
دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
text
article
2012
per
Existing research analyzes the relationship between macro-economic factors & bank credit risk. Macro-economic factors include GDP, CPI, M1, Tehran Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) & Currency Rate (Dollar). Bank credit risk has been measured by Loan Loss Provision Ratio. The study uses the fifteen Iranian bank & credit institutes data during the years 1382 to 1388 solar. The study results show there is significant positive relationship between GDP, CPI, M1, TEPIX, and Dollar rate and bank credit risk. The results imply that the management & regulators need to focus on these factors to mitigate credit risk.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
102
119
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104584_9c27f4abc0d03cc9c1a40e4e8537cade.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104584
The compilation of predicting patterns of financial distress using internal analysis data and artificial intelligent techniques’’
Zahra
Pourzamani
استادیار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکزی
author
text
article
2012
per
One of external user’s decision making tools such as investors, creditors, trade companies and state organization is decision making about investment, crediting…, and financial statement analysis of the companies. Respecting rapid development of computer technology and techniques, more exact information can be provided for decision maker’s than traditional information in order to be able to make more efficient decisions about probable of return on investment and/or financial distress occurrence before occurring and suffering the high expenses.
The aim of this study is to make a financial distress predicting model for listed companies’ in Tehran stock exchange using financial proportions and artificial intelligent techniques. So financial information relevant to time period 2001 to 2009 is compiled and expected financial proportions’ are extracted and neural network patterns (ANN), principal component analysis combination, and neural network PCA +ANN have been compiled to predict the financial distress one or more years before the occurring. Then according to obtained results, These patterns have been compared and the best pattern has been chosen .In accordance with the results, It is distinguished that the neural net work using the information One year before financial distress occurring has more efficiency in predicting the financial distress of the companies rather than other techniques in this research and other financial years.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
120
135
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104585_84cbc0e2fa3469d965195f87b7621e74.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104585
The study of relationship conservatism & flexibility in cash management
Hossein
Fakhari
استادیار حسابداری دانشگاه مازندران
author
Khadijeh
Arab
کارشناس ارشد حسابداری
author
text
article
2012
per
Conservatism exists in response to economic demand for verifiable and timely information that mitigates agency problems in contracting, and in response to changes in the regulatory and litigation environments. Conservatism effects on financial reporting, it shapes firms’ internal financial decisions too. Therefor, cash management is one of the managements 'internal decisions that it can be affected by trait of conservative of encounters. So we examine the impact of conservatism in flexibility in cash management of 86 firms of listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 1384-1387 with cross sectional and panel analyze. The findings exhibit negative relationship between conservatism and flexibility in cash management inclusive cash and propensity to save cash from free cash flows.
This finding can explain importance of role of conservatism in extent of financial accounting and it can refer to impact of conservatism on managements’ internal decisions too and it recognizes management with importance and role of conservatism in financial flexibility.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
136
151
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104587_e73f419ed94576cd3a502c897bc00a46.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104587
The Effect of The fundamentals on portfolio returns in
Ebrahim
Abbasi
دانشیار و عضو هیأت علمی دانشگاه الزهراء (س)
author
Mohammad
Alidoost Agdam
کارشناس ارشد مدیریت مالی
author
text
article
2012
per
The purpose of this paper is investigating the effect of the Four Fundamentals variables including E/P, B/M, size and C/P on The stock portfolio return in Tehran stock exchange. Underlying this variables 54 firms were arranged and grouping in the portfolios for 5 years period (2002-2006) monthly by the within – groups method. Results of the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) indicate that E/P and B/M have significant negative impact on the stock portfolio returns. But size and C/P variables have not significant impact on the portfolio return.
Accounting and Auditing Research
Licence Holder
Iranian Accounting Association
Director & Editor-in-chief
Ali Saghafi(PhD)
Director & General Secretary
Naser Partovi
Editorial Assistant
Maryam Asgharzadeh Badr
2251-8428
4
v.
16
no.
2012
152
165
https://www.iaaaar.com/article_104588_424eda42a3184689fad7e68d22e8fcbb.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/iaar.2012.104588